Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Springtime Blues?

The long and winding road to redemption begins shortly for the 2008 Mets - burdened with putting behind in their own minds and their fans' minds the horrendous historic collapse that stunned them and all of baseball in 2007. The acquisition by default of one Johan Santana to solidify the starting rotation obviously helps jump start that process, but the Mets have many questions to answer to themselves and the rest of the National League if indeed they want to be playing and not just watching in October this season.I don't wish to put this on one person's shoulders (or right shoulder to be more specific), but the biggest question to me this spring is the Mets bullpen, and specifically the health of one Duaner Sanchez. If Sanchez can eventually come around and get back to being the dominant 8th inning pitcher he was in the first part of 2006, this team will be tough to beat. And that's asking a lot. Remember - Sanchez has not pitched in a big league game since the end of July '06, just prior to his ill-fated taxi ride. He needs time - and the rest of the bullpen has to afford him that time to come along at his own pace. If he can build his strength in the first half and then eventually team with Aaron Heilman to deliver the ball to closer Billy Wagner, that's a blueprint the Mets can live with. Those three should be joined by four others to form the Mets pen. Manager Willie Randolph has always liked a middle-innings righty-lefty combo - two years ago it was Pedro Feliciano and Chad Bradford - last year it was Feliciano and Joe Smith - this season I think it will be Feliciano and Matt Wise, ex of the Brewers. Jorge Sosa should be the long man, and call me crazy, but I expect a big year out of Scott Schoeneweis. He's a much better pitcher than what he showed last year, he did pitch better toward the end of the season, and on the old bounceback theory with relievers plus an increased comfort level in New York, I think Schoeneweis can turn things around.Other bullpenners to watch - Smith - who allowed 49% of inherited runners to score last year (25 of 51) - has to turn that stat around or he'll be starting the year in New Orleans. Also, Brian Stokes, Nate Field, Ruddy Lugo, Carlos Muniz, Steven Register and Oregon State's Eddie Kunz. Juan Padilla will need some time to get back on track.The Mets pitching staff was 7th in the N.L. with a 4.26 ERA in 2007. That should come down with Santana aboard to team with Pedro Martinez - a potent 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Pedro was 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 5 starts after his return - you can't project off that, but he looks great, feels healthy, and hitters still fear him no matter how hard he throws. John Maine and Oliver Perez are a very nice 3-4, and El Duque should round out the five. Mike Pelfrey will pitch every 5th day - it will either be at Triple A or during Duque's illnesses or vacations. Everyone seems to try too hard to impress when they come to New York, but from what I've witnessed early on from Santana, he should adjust just fine to the big city.Carlos Delgado will earn $16 million this season, so the numbers (.258 - 24 - 87) have to improve from last year. And Jose Reyes has to avoid hitting the wall that caused his average to drop to .205 during the month of September. The Mets defense up the middle is much improved which should help a strong pitching staff - catcher Brian Schneider threw out 31% of baserunners attempting to steal last year, and 2B Luis Castillo's range should improve that much more with fresh knees after off-season surgery. With a 5 man bench - there really is only one spot open. Ramon Castro, Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley and Endy Chavez are givens. The Mets could use a right-handed hitting outfielder and a righty bat to occasionally spell Delgado at first, along with a backup middle infielder. But Easley is a real X-factor - he can play the outfield, first base, as well as the middle infield. So there's a lot of ways that Willie Randolph can go.And speaking of Willie, will he run things tighter than he did last year? How does he react, and how does he want his team to react to last season's sickening September swoon? Willie is a big believer in payback, and we all know payback is a b----, so we'll soon find out if this Mets team can dispense the hurt they felt upon their counterparts in the N.L.

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